Washington, DC – The administration of United States President Joe Biden has mentioned it’s taking a wait-and-see method to the fledgling authorities in Syria, with diplomats in current weeks holding preliminary conferences with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) head, and the nation’s de facto chief, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in addition to the newly appointed Overseas Minister Asaad al-Shibani.
However since rebels toppled longtime chief Bashar al-Assad in early December, the US has maintained it would preserve its deployment of troops in northeast Syria, the place US personnel proceed to assist the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a part of a decade-long anti-ISIL (ISIS) mission.
The truth is, the Pentagon in December up to date the variety of personnel it mentioned had been current within the nation, saying the quantity was truly 2,000, not the 900 it had for years reported.
Joshua Landis, the director of the Middle of Center East Research on the College of Oklahoma, described the replace as a not-so-subtle message to numerous actors in Syria to take a cautious method in direction of the SDF and the sprawling, economically important, territory the group controls because the nation’s future takes shapes.
It additionally underscores how the US, not less than within the waning days of the Biden administration earlier than President-elect Donald Trump takes workplace on January 20, will search to say its leverage in forming a brand new Syria, partially, by having boots on the bottom.
“It was a sign to Turkiye, I believe, and to the Arab forces that they shouldn’t be attacking the Kurdish area,” Landis mentioned, in reference to the territory the SDF controls, which has a big Syrian Kurdish inhabitants.
“It was meant to attract a line that that is one thing to be negotiated, and it’s not one thing to work out on the battlefield.”
On January 2, the United Kingdom-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights additionally reported that the US navy seemed to be bolstering its bases within the area, together with, in keeping with the monitor’s sources, constructing a brand new base in Ain al-Arab. Nonetheless, a Pentagon spokesperson on Friday denied that there have been plans to determine “some kind of base or presence” there.
So, what’s behind the plans to proceed the US presence in Syria following al-Assad’s toppling?
Said strategic priorities
The Biden administration’s public messaging has careworn one defining precedence in sustaining a troop presence in Syria: The anti-ISIL (ISIS) operation, which was first launched in 2014 underneath US President Barack Obama.
Talking to reporters on December 19, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder additionally maintained that “there are not any plans to stop the Defeat ISIS mission”. Ryder mentioned the elevated troop numbers had been meant to answer “rising mission necessities related to the Defeat ISIS mission”.
Mohammed Salih, a senior fellow on the Philadelphia-based Overseas Coverage Analysis Institute, mentioned there are certainly a number of different unstated strategic pursuits behind the US troop deployment. Nonetheless, the continued risk of an ISIL resurgence shouldn’t be discounted.
Whereas ISIL was territorially defeated in 2017, the Pentagon in July mentioned there had been 153 assaults by the group’s fighters in Iraq and Syria within the first six months of the 12 months, a fee double that of 2023.
With the SDF presently overseeing prisons housing 1000’s of ISIL prisoners, a continued US presence can provide a deterrent to clashes with Turkish-backed teams that might degrade the safety state of affairs.
“[Fighting ISIL] remains to be a really a lot related goal,” Salih instructed Al Jazeera. “It has been a peaceable, by and enormous, transitional course of to this point, however the lack of a government additionally creates very important alternatives for chaos for a gaggle like ISIS to take advantage of. They’re fairly adept when it comes to adjusting with the circumstances that they take care of and following this gradual path of creating a comeback, as they did in Iraq in 2010, 2011.”
For its half, Turkiye, which supported the HTS-led insurgent offensive in addition to the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), has floated a extra complete takeover of the anti-ISIL mission.
Turkiye considers The Folks’s Protection Items (YPG), which makes up the majority of the SDF’s fighters, a “terrorist organisation”. The Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration (PKK), in the meantime, is taken into account a “terrorist” group by each Ankara and Washington.
Nonetheless, Turkiye’s opposition to the SDF has lengthy put it at odds with its fellow NATO ally, the US, over the latter’s assist for the group.
‘Bargaining chips’
The SDF presently controls a big swath of northeast Syria, accounting for almost a 3rd of the nation’s total territory. The land it controls comprises about 70 % of Syria’s oil and gasoline fields.
Together with reduction from the crushing US and international sanctions imposed on areas managed by al-Assad throughout his rule, management of these oil fields will likely be important for Syria’s future financial improvement. Al-Sharaa and al-Shibani have made that improvement the principle emphasis of their early contacts with media and international envoys.
“Syria wants main international funding in its oil business with a view to put it again on-line, to renovate and refurbish it,” Landis, the Middle of Center East Research director, instructed Al Jazeera. “Solely the Syrian authorities can try this as a result of the US doesn’t have the authority to signal lengthy term-leases with international governments. Neither do the Kurds, as a result of they’re not a recognised authorities. These wells belong to the Syrian authorities.”
The US troop presence in Syria has, partially, aimed to make sure these fossil gasoline fields stayed out of the palms of each ISIL, which briefly managed them, and the al-Assad authorities.
In 2019, then-US President Trump straight addressed that purpose, saying throughout a White Home information convention subsequent to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the US had “left troops behind just for the oil”. A Pentagon official later mentioned that “securing of the oil fields is a subordinate job” to defeating ISIL in Syria.
Whatever the US motivation for securing the fields in recent times, their launch will likely be a key leverage level in negotiations going ahead, Landis mentioned.
“Sanctions and oil are large bargaining chips,” Landis mentioned.
These negotiations will embrace whether or not the SDF can have a job within the new authorities. In an early signal of cooperation, al-Sharaa met with SDF delegates final week.
Potential strain from Israel
Washington might additionally search to affect the tact the brand new Syrian authorities takes with US foes like Iran and regional allies, most notably Israel, which has seized Syrian territory past the occupied Golan Heights because the starting of December.
“All of this presents a chance to reshape or restructure the regional order in a method that will be extra in step with US priorities,” Salih, from the Overseas Coverage Analysis Institute, mentioned.
Whereas the opposition takeover largely gutted Iranian affect in Syria and minimize off Tehran’s provide traces to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, it has additionally opened the door for elevated affect from Turkiye, which has taken a tough line towards Israel amid the battle in Gaza.
In flip, Israel might heap elevated strain on its “ironclad” ally Washington to extract assurances from Turkiye, in keeping with Landis.
“Israel, clearly America’s closest ally within the area, could be very anxious that it’s simply buying and selling an Iranian proxy for a Turkish proxy,” Landis mentioned. “So, Israel’s pursuits are going to be to maintain Syria as weak, divided and poor as potential and will certainly be making an attempt to construct some strain for the US to stay in Syria with its troops.”
However that strain might run counter to US pursuits, he famous, significantly with regional Arab allies more and more embracing al-Sharaa. Whereas US presence could also be tolerated within the speedy future, when the newly constituted Syrian authorities military is ill-equipped to answer ISIL, there will likely be an expiration date.
“They will solely drag that on for therefore lengthy earlier than you alienate everyone,” Landis mentioned. “There are simply many the reason why America doesn’t need to actually spoil the trouble to unite Syria.”
The long run and Trump
Then there’s the query of the pending Trump administration and what the second time period of a president recognized for his volatility in international coverage will spell for Syria.
Trump has sparingly weighed in on the state of affairs. In his characteristically nebulous model, he wrote on his TruthSocial platform in early December that Syria “is just not our battle”.
The assertion seems to be in step with Trump’s “America First” pledges to finish US navy involvement overseas, though his previous efforts to withdraw US troops from Syria stalled amid strong opposition from inside his personal administration.
Given his appointees this time round, Trump seems to be on an analogous collision course, in keeping with Salih.
“Figures such because the Nationwide Safety adviser choose, Congressman Mike Waltz, and the secretary of a state nominee, Marco Rubio, stood strongly and really vocally towards Turkish navy operations towards the SDF… and that the US wants to take care of a navy deployment inside Syria,” he mentioned.
“All of that very a lot might run towards the private needs and wishes of Trump.”
Additional muddying the waters, Trump in December appeared to reward Ankara for its assist of the insurgent ousting of al-Assad, whereas describing the toppling as an “unfriendly takeover” by Turkiye.
Some observers have speculated that Trump could also be extra open to turning over anti-ISIL operations than his predecessor, though no clear place has emerged.
“I wouldn’t count on Syria coverage to have been settled as of but,” Salih mentioned.
“I believe there can be fairly some battle contained in the incoming administration on the subject of Syria coverage.”